This is an interesting video by Ken aka Chicken Genius Singapore on why we are about to embark on the biggest bull run. Ken shared that the biggest indicator of an impending recession is unemployment.
If companies are not hiring, it means less business, because less people are spending, which leads to less profits and it becomes a domino effect.
There are 3 types of unemployment: Frictional, Structural and Cyclical Unemployment.
Frictional unemployment happens where employers refrain from hiring or laying off workers. Or jobless workers looking for work in a healthy economy. Today, this is at a all time low.
Structural unemployment refers to the mismatch of jobs available. For example, technically advanced job positions are not filled up due to the lack of skills. Or major disruption of old industries and these workers not being able to find another job. Today, there are so many jobs available now.
Lastly, cyclical unemployment occurs when there is not enough demand of goods and services. Today, the demand for goods and services is sky high and is causing inflation.
Ken believes that when a recession is coming, it is most likely lead by unemployment. When people lose jobs, earnings go down, business cut back, people cut back on spending because they are scared of losing their jobs.
However, in today’s context, what is happening is the total opposite of the above scenario. It is booming economy and people are loaded with cash. Despite of all the talks about the Fed pulling liquidity out of the market, there will be a large stimulus cheque, $1500 to $1800 tax credit per child, being given out soon and this will pump more money into the system. All these occurences, coupled with CPI higher than the 10 year yield, will lead to the biggest bull market we will see.
What do you guys think? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.
***
Keen to learn about options trading but do not wish to pay for expensive courses, this newbie guide will help gain the knowledge and fundamentals to understand options better. And it’s totally free!
The Newbie’s Guide To Options Trading
The LEAPS Strategy has helped me make more than USD120,000 in 2021. Here’s all you need to know about this strategy that can help you increase your wealth exponentially:
The Ultimate LEAPS Options Thread
Looking for ideas on what stocks to invest in or which stocks to trade? You can take reference from what I have been buying or selling. I try to update them as soon as I can in this section, as well as share my thoughts behind executing these trades:
MY TRADES
Excited to start your trading journey or perhaps try out with a paper trading account to build your confidence in trading? Check out this step-by-step to help you get started:
How To Buy Options on Interactive Brokers (Step-By-Step)
If the bear market in 2022 is making feel depressed as your stocks come tumbling down, read this article to find out how you can use options trading to help you claw back some of your losses as you await market recovery:
How I Do Earn Even When The Stock Market Is Bearish?
I watched tons of videos on YouTube since 2020 and if you are wondering if there are any useful channels that you can subscribe to for learning market trends, TA, FA, check out this compilation here:
My Secret Weapons For Options Trading: I Watch These YouTube Financial Channels Every Day
I concluded my first year of options trading with more than USD160k of gain, see how I do it and the capital I use for every month to give you a sensing of the percentage yield I get out of my gains:
1st Year Options Trading Recap: The Journey Towards SGD$217,509 Profits In 2021
This blog is as authentic and as transparent as I can share, I do not just show the wins and hide the loss. I have made some very bad decisions in the first 8 years of investing and paid a huge price for them. Here is the loss I have accumulated during these years. I hope you learn some lessons from my mistakes.
I Cut $135,715 Worth Of Losses In The Last 1.5 Months
Follow me on your favorite social media platforms, Facebook, LinkedIn, or Twitter, to get notified of my latest blog posts. Or join our investing/ trading community at Telegram to exchange ideas or ask questions relating to investing/ trading.
Learning Investment With Jason Cai 